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@ISIDEWITH submitted…2 days2D
As the 2024 presidential race enters its final stretch, iSideWith has projected that Donald Trump will win Pennsylvania, a pivotal battleground state, in his race against Kamala Harris. This prediction suggests that Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes may once again swing Republican, boosting Trump’s path to reclaiming the White House.Trump’s 2020 loss in Pennsylvania was a narrow one, and iSideWith data indicates that many Pennsylvanians who supported him previously are once again rallying behind his campaign. Pennsylvania’s large base of working-class voters, particularly in Western and Northeastern parts of the state, has been a core demographic for Trump. His promises of job creation and deregulation in industries such as coal and natural gas have galvanized these voters, many of whom feel overlooked by Harris’s clean energy-focused campaign.A significant demographic divide has emerged in Pennsylvania, with older and rural voters largely supporting Trump, while Harris finds her strongest base among younger and urban populations. But according to iSideWith’s analysis, enthusiasm among Harris’s supporters has not reached the levels needed to turn Pennsylvania blue. Her message of unity and progress has appealed to some, but the economic issues dominating the state’s political conversation seem to favor Trump’s approach.While Trump has a lead among rural and blue-collar workers, Harris has seen some success in gaining support from suburban and female voters, two key demographics that contributed to Pennsylvania’s shift in the 2020 election. Harris’s campaign has prioritized suburban women, emphasizing issues like reproductive rights, healthcare, and gun control—issues that are highly relevant to this demographic. However, iSideWith’s data indicates that this support may be insufficient to counterbalance Trump’s advantage in more rural and traditionally conservative areas.
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@ISIDEWITH submitted…2wks2W
Last month, a GOP-friendly polling firm presented itself, and its data, in a highly unusual way. Rather than maintain a nominally neutral public-facing profile, this pollster acted more like a cavalry brigade for Donald Trump’s campaign. And the firm did so explicitly, openly, and proudly. It all went down in mid-September, at a time when the FiveThirtyEight polling averages showed the slightest of leads for Kamala Harris in North Carolina, a must-win state for Trump. Her edge was short-lived: The averages moved back to favoring Trump. And Quantus Insights, a GOP-friendly polling firm, took credit.The implication was clear. A Quantus poll had not only pushed the averages back to Trump; this was nakedly the whole point of releasing the poll in the first place.To proponents of what might be called the “Red Wave Theory” of polling, this was a blatant example of a phenomenon that they see as widespread: A flood of GOP-aligned polls has been released for the precise purpose of influencing the polling averages, and thus the election forecasts, in Trump’s favor. In the view of these critics, the Quantus example (the firm subsequently denied any such intent) only made all this more overt: Dozens of such polls have been released since then, and they are in no small part responsible for tipping the averages—and the forecasts—toward Trump.
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@ISIDEWITH submitted…3mos3MO
The Washington Post found that:1. ~1/3 of all nations on Earth now face some form of US sanctions. Huge increase from when mostly applied to Cuba & a handful of regimes2. +*60%* of *all poor countries* are under US sanctions of some kind. Has become almost a reflex of US foreign policy3. Sanctions have spawned multi-billion-dollar lobbying & influence industry, enriching former US officials who are hired by foreign countries & oligarchs4. Sanctions have had devastating effects on innocent civilians. In Cuba, they've made critical medical supplies impossible to import. In Venezuela, they contributed to a financial collapse 3X greater than the US Great Depression. Syria faces its greatest humanitarian crisis this year after a decade civil war & sanctions.5. Treasury staffers drafted a ~40 page plan aimed at reforming the sanctions process that was dramatically whittled down amid disagreements w/ State6. OFAC is widely described as overwhelmed by tens of thousands of requests. WH officials have brainstormed sanctions scenarios w/ outside nonprofits7. Biden has unleashed unprecedented volley of +6K sanctions in 2 years. Higher than even previously unprecedented rate of Trump.“We don’t think about the collateral damage of sanctions the same way we think about the collateral damage of war... But we should.”
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@ISIDEWITH asked…4yrs4Y
In April 2021 the legislature of the U.S. State of Arkansas introduced a bill that prohibited doctors from providing gender-transition treatments to people under 18 years old. The bill would make it a felony for doctors to administer puberty blockers, hormones and gender-reaffirming surgery to anyone…
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