Daily Discussion - May 14, 2024

China Launches Mysterious Stealth Warship

A new stealthy Chinese corvette or light frigate has ostensibly made its maiden voyage.

The ship's design has some broad similarities to Sweden's radar-evading Visby class corvettes, including a main gun that sits concealed inside low observable cupola when not in use, but is larger by all indications.

How fast work on this vessel seems to be progressing also speaks to the scale and scope of China's shipbuilding capacity, something that presents huge challenges for even the country's most well-equipped competitors, principally the United States.

Just two weeks ago, China&#…  Read more039;s first indigenously-designed carrier, which features catapults and other major enhancements, also set out on its inaugural sea trials.

Biden Will Send Another $1 Billion To Israel

The Biden administration notified Congress on Tuesday that it was moving forward with more than $1 billion in new weapons deals for Israel, U.S. and congressional officials said, a massive arms package less than a week after the White House paused a shipment of bombs over a planned Israeli assault on Rafah.

The latest weapons package includes the potential transfer of $700 million in tank ammunition, $500 million in tactical vehicles and $60 million in mortar rounds, the officials said.

The decision to proceed with the transfers underscored the Biden administration’s reluctance to deepen…  Read more its rift with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the Rafah operation by restricting longer-term weapons deals with its closest Middle East ally.

Tariffs Will Move Chinese Production To Mexico

The Biden administration's new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and other strategic sectors aim to protect the future of U.S. manufacturing, but they will likely accelerate a shift of Chinese production to Mexico, Vietnam and elsewhere to avoid them.

U.S. officials and trade experts say that without strong efforts to cut off transshipped or lightly processed Chinese goods from Mexico and other countries, China's underpriced excess production will still find its way into U.S. markets.

"The new tariffs might keep out imports from China but it is likely that much of those import…  Read mores could be rerouted through countries not subject to the tariffs," said Eswar Prasad, trade policy professor at Cornell University and a former China director at the International Monetary Fund.

White House Says "No Genocide" Happening In Gaza

U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Monday that President Joe Biden's administration does not view the killings of Palestinians in Gaza by Israel in its war with Hamas as genocide.

Sullivan said the United States wants to see Hamas defeated. He also said that Palestinians caught in the middle of the war were in "hell" and that a major military operation by Israel in Rafah would be a mistake.

"We do not believe what is happening in Gaza is a genocide. We have been firmly on record rejecting that proposition," Sullivan told reporters at the White House.…  Read morep>

Sullivan expressed concern about reports of Israeli settlers attacking a humanitarian aid convoy on its way to Erez Crossing in northern Gaza, the second such incident in less than a week.

Global Leaders Panic Over Drop In Fertility Rate

The world is at a startling demographic milestone. Sometime soon, the global fertility rate will drop below the point needed to keep population constant. It may have already happened.

Fertility is falling almost everywhere, for women across all levels of income, education and labor-force participation. The falling birthrates come with huge implications for the way people live, how economies grow and the standings of the world’s superpowers.

In 2017, when the global fertility rate—a snapshot of how many babies a woman is expected to have over her lifetime—was 2.5, the United…  Read more Nations thought it would slip to 2.4 in the late 2020s. Yet by 2021, the U.N. concluded, it was already down to 2.3—close to what demographers consider the global replacement rate of about 2.2. The replacement rate, which keeps population stable over time, is 2.1 in rich countries, and slightly higher in developing countries, where fewer girls than boys are born and more mothers die during their childbearing years.

Missile Fired From Drone Kills 4 Members Of Pakistani Family

A missile fired by a drone struck a house in a former stronghold of the Pakistani Taliban in northwestern Pakistan along the Afghan border before dawn Tuesday, killing at least four villagers, including children, police said.

The strike happened in South Waziristan in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, local police chief Hidayat Ullah said. He said it was not immediately clear who fired the missile and officers were investigating. The Pakistan army evicted Pakistani Taliban insurgents from the region years ago, but they have been regrouping there.

Those killed in the missile strike were civilians wit…  Read moreh no known links to the insurgents. Villagers put their bodies on a road near a military camp and protested the killings and demanded information about who was responsible.

Russia and China Leaders Will Meet This Week

Vladimir Putin will visit China on Thursday and Friday, marking the Russian leader’s first foreign trip since he was sworn in for a fifth presidential term last week.

The Kremlin said Putin and Xi would “discuss the whole range of issues in detail in their all-encompassing partnership and strategic relationship, define the key directions of the further development of Russia-China practical partnership, and hold a thorough exchange of views on the most pressing international and regional problems”.

Beijing has thrown Moscow a vital economic lifeline by helping temper the damage…  Read more from western sanctions over the war that have cut Russia out of international markets and supply chains.

Biden Does Not Believe He Is Behind Trump In Polls

Confronted with some of his bad poll numbers in a rare interview with CNN, Biden offered a more sweeping indictment of polling methodology.

"The polling data has been wrong all along. How many — you guys do a poll at CNN. How many folks you have to call to get one response?"

"While the press doesn't write about it, the momentum is clearly in our favor, with the polls moving towards us and away from Trump," Biden told donors during a West Coast swing last week.

resident Biden doesn't believe his bad poll numbers, and neither do many of his closest advisers, acc…  Read moreording to people familiar with the matter.

North Dakota Governor Banned From Entering Indian Tribes

South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem is now banned from entering nearly 20% of her state after two more tribes banished her this week over comments she made earlier this year about tribal leaders benefitting from drug cartels.

"We've got some tribal leaders that I believe are personally benefiting from the cartels being there, and that's why they attack me every day," Noem said at a forum. "But I'm going to fight for the people who actually live in those situations, who call me and text me every day and say, 'Please, dear governor, please come help us in Pine Ridge.…  Read more We are scared.'"

UK Prime Minister Warns Of World War In Campaign Speech

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak warned of a dangerous future for the U.K.

Sunak’s speech repeatedly attacked Labour leader Keir Starmer, saying he lacked plans to deal with security risks from what he described as an “axis of authoritarian states” that he named as Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.

Sunak said his pledge to increase military spending to 2.5% of gross domestic product by 2030 better positions his party to confront that threat. The war in Ukraine, Iranian proxies attacking ships in the Red Sea and Chinese cyberattacks aimed at members of Parliament are some…  Read more of those risks, he said.