OECD warns Middle East war could trigger a global recession this year

On Wednesday, the OECD slashed its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.8% as the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran destabilizes energy markets.

Experts warn that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is creating a massive energy shock that could push inflation significantly higher. While India and the U.S. show resilience, the report suggests a prolonged war might tip smaller, energy-dependent nations into a "dark scenario" of full recession. Business investment is already stalling worldwide because of the uncertainty surrounding fuel costs and global shipping routes.

Financial markets are now focused on whether a third-quarter de-escalation can prevent a deeper economic collapse in 2027.